Phillip Knox and Peter C. Kiefer
We are pleased to invite you to participate in our ninth survey by accessing the link shown below. The survey is fairly short (only 7 background questions and 24 scenarios). We ask that you give your best assessment of the probability of each scenario occurring within the next 10 years. We have mixed new scenarios in with those from previous surveys. This allows us to track changes in the group’s probability assessment over time.
As in the past, we ask you to assess the likelihood of each scenario actually occurring within the next ten years, not whether or not you would like the scenario to occur. If a scenario was run in a previous survey, please assess the likelihood ten years from this year, not from the date of the previous survey. The probability scale runs from “1”: highly likely, “2”: likely, “3”: having an equal (50-50) chance, “4”: unlikely, to “5”: improbable. If you cannot assess a given scenario, feel free to mark “No Answer.”
At the end we invite your comments regarding any of the scenarios. Your comments provide depth to the survey responses and context for how we look at these scenarios and ultimately the future of courts.