A CourtFutures Survey Results Article: April 10, 2025

The CourtFutures Survey
The CourtFutures survey, which has tracked over 240 scenarios since 2012, assesses the likelihood of various future situations impacting the courts. While the survey has traditionally focused on an annual report of top trends, the rise of Artificial Intelligence has enabled a deeper analysis of timely issues. The paper linked to this piece is intended to be the first in a series of “deep dives” into scenarios that CourtFutures has surveyed court professionals on throughout the years.

The Scenario
The scenario discussed here is “What is the Likelihood Homelessness Will Reach Crisis Levels in the United States Within the Next 10 Years?”

The Scenario as It Appeared in the Survey:

The scenario was included in the 2024 survey; 191 court professionals responded. The average response on a 1 to 5 Likert-type scale was 2.0 which classified it as “Likely.”

What Did the Four A.I. Tools Think?
We then consulted four AI tools—ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, and Claude—to evaluate the probability of homelessness reaching crisis levels in the next 10 years and its impact on the court system. The findings, along with survey responses from court professionals, indicate that homelessness is increasingly straining government services, including courts.


The AI tools and survey respondents cited multiple contributing factors to the worsening homelessness crisis, including rising housing costs, economic instability, inadequate mental health services, and strained government resources. Courts are particularly affected as they handle growing numbers of eviction cases, minor criminal offenses related to homelessness, and civil disputes over public services and shelter policies. Although some interventions, such as affordable housing initiatives and nonprofit efforts, may mitigate the crisis, the current trajectory suggests increasing challenges for courts.


How Could Increasing Homelessness Affect the Courts?
The potential effects on the judicial system are significant, with courts facing administrative burdens, increased litigation, and evolving legal challenges surrounding homelessness policies. If the situation continues to escalate, courts may need to adapt by expanding homeless-specific legal programs, mobile court services, and alternative case management strategies.


The paper concludes that unless substantial policy interventions occur, courts will experience mounting caseloads and logistical difficulties. CourtFutures invites further discussion and participation in its 2025 survey to continue monitoring these trends and their implications.


Access this below to read the full paper: Within the Next Ten Years:
Homelessness in the United States Reaches Crisis Levels

We would love to hear your insights on the likelihood of this scenario occurring within the next 10 years. Email us at courtfutures@gmail.com. Add your voice to the future of courts! Take the 2025 CourtFutures survey. Click on the link below:
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/LRD6GRM

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Published by Peter C. Kiefer

Peter C. Kiefer is a career court veteran with over 40 years experience working with trial courts in Oregon, Arizona, and California. He has been an administrator in general jurisdiction and limited jurisdiction trial courts; he has also worked for state court administrative offices in both Oregon and California. He has consulted with the judicial systems in Liberia, Moldova, and Beirut, Lebanon, as well as being a member of a NACM delegation that visited the People’s Republic of China. Peter graduated from Santa Clara University with his bachelor’s degree in Political Science, and received his Masters of Public Administration with a specialty in Court Administration from the University of Southern California. In 2016 he became a Fellow of the Institute for Court Management. In 2015 Peter was given the NACM Award of Merit.

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